Fundraising 2010/Report/Draft Test 8

From Meta, a Wikimedia project coordination wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search

[edit]

For additional documentation on the testing methodology please see the following pages:


Banners[edit]

No Border. This is a static banner and features the text "Please read: An urgent appeal from Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales.". This banner has no border.


Navy Border. This is a static banner and features the text "Please read: An urgent appeal from Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales.". The banner has a navy blue border.


Result[edit]

Test Time: 2010-12-16 19:50:00 UTC - 2010-12-16 21:10:00 UTC
Sampling Interval = 2 minutes
Testing Interval = 80 minutes
Total Number of Samples per Class = 40

Donations / Impression*: "No Border" banner won by 17.10%.
Amount50 / Impression**: "No Border" banner won by 24.03%.

WINNER: "No Border"


(*) The rate of donations per banner impression over a fixed time interval.

(**) The rate of amount50 per banner impression over a fixed time interval. Amount50 is the dollar amount raised from donations initiated under a given banner where all donations of more than $50 are recorded as $50 donations. This counters the skewing effect of outlier donations.

Data Analysis[edit]

This section analyzes and interprets the results of the tests.

Data Consistency and Cleaning[edit]

The plots below display the counts of the data sources over the testing period as verification of the consistency of the donation pipeline data used in testing. It should be noted that a certain amount of natural variance is expected in donation counts and is no cause for alarm. The bottom two figures depict the total views and donations with those coming from each banner. This illustrates when the campaign becomes active and is also a useful tool for determining where anomalous behaviour may be visible in the data. It is of note that there are a couple of intervals where the impressions dipped down to zero, however these were sparse enough not to effect the quality of the data significantly. It should be noted that the data is analyzed over a period at least as large as the full testing period and that the testing period was chosen based on the period of time where significant hits and donations were observed.

In regards to the bottom two plots at bottom, one other banner was running along with the two being compared and so the totals in those plots can be ignored (especially the "Views" plot).

Impressions broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Donations broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Donations/Impression broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Amount50/Impression broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.

Analyzing the above plots the donation and impression data appear to be quite regular over the interval 2010-12-16 19:50:00 UTC - 2010-12-16 21:10:00 UTC. Therefore, two minute intervals will be used for sampling over this period as a source for the paired t-test to assess confidence in the winner.

Modelling and Hypothesis Testing[edit]

"No Border" won in each case for donations/impression and amount50/impression with increases of 17.10% and 24.03% respectively. The student's t-test was used to assess confidence over each metric and the confidence in the winner for donations/impression and amount50/impression is at least 97.5% in each case. This is a significant win for the "No Border" banner.

Mean and standard deviation over test intervals over Donations / Impression.


Mean and standard deviation over test intervals over Amount50 / Impression

TOTAL DONATIONS "No Border": 320
TOTAL DONATIONS "Navy Border": 268

TOTAL AMOUNT50* RAISED "No Border": $5270.44
TOTAL AMOUNT50* RAISED "Navy Border": $6801.99

* AMOUNT50 indicates the total amount raised where all donations greater than $50 are taken to be a donation of $50.


DONATIONS PER IMPRESSION:

Between 97.5% and 99.0% confident about the winner.

Border / No Border Compare -- 2010-12-16 19:50:00 - 2010-12-16 21:10:00

item 1  = No border
item 2  = Navy border

The winner No border had a 17.10% increase.

interval	mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2

0		0.00014		0.00014		0.00011		0.00002
1		0.00015		0.00012		0.00003		0.00006
2		0.00017		0.00012		0.00005		0.00002
3		0.00017		0.00015		0.00000		0.00001


Overall Parameters:

mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2
0.00016		0.00014		0.00006		0.00003


AMOUNT50 PER IMPRESSION:

Between 97.5% and 99.0% confident about the winner.

Border / No Border Compare -- 2010-12-16 19:50:00 - 2010-12-16 21:10:00

item 1  = No border
item 2  = Navy border

The winner No border had a 24.03% increase.

interval	mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2

0		0.00320		0.00289		0.00218		0.00013
1		0.00292		0.00278		0.00119		0.00093
2		0.00344		0.00236		0.00060		0.00228
3		0.00386		0.00279		0.00067		0.00052


Overall Parameters:

mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2
0.00336		0.00271		0.00132		0.00126

Endnotes[edit]

  1. Campaign = "20101216JA029"
  2. "Animated Progress Meter" utm_source = "20101216_JA013B_US"
  3. "Static Progress Meter" utm_source = "20101216_JA013C_US"