Fundraising 2010/Report/Draft Test 8
Banner Test - Border / No Border Compare
For additional documentation on the testing methodology please see the following pages:
Test Time: 2010-12-16 19:50:00 UTC - 2010-12-16 21:10:00 UTC
Sampling Interval = 2 minutes
Testing Interval = 80 minutes
Total Number of Samples per Class = 40
Donations / Impression*: "No Border" banner won by 17.10%.
Amount50 / Impression**: "No Border" banner won by 24.03%.
WINNER: "No Border"
(*) The rate of donations per banner impression over a fixed time interval.
(**) The rate of amount50 per banner impression over a fixed time interval. Amount50 is the dollar amount raised from donations initiated under a given banner where all donations of more than $50 are recorded as $50 donations. This counters the skewing effect of outlier donations.
This section analyzes and interprets the results of the tests.
Data Consistency and Cleaning
The plots below display the counts of the data sources over the testing period as verification of the consistency of the donation pipeline data used in testing. It should be noted that a certain amount of natural variance is expected in donation counts and is no cause for alarm. The bottom two figures depict the total views and donations with those coming from each banner. This illustrates when the campaign becomes active and is also a useful tool for determining where anomalous behaviour may be visible in the data. It is of note that there are a couple of intervals where the impressions dipped down to zero, however these were sparse enough not to effect the quality of the data significantly. It should be noted that the data is analyzed over a period at least as large as the full testing period and that the testing period was chosen based on the period of time where significant hits and donations were observed.
In regards to the bottom two plots at bottom, one other banner was running along with the two being compared and so the totals in those plots can be ignored (especially the "Views" plot).
Analyzing the above plots the donation and impression data appear to be quite regular over the interval 2010-12-16 19:50:00 UTC - 2010-12-16 21:10:00 UTC. Therefore, two minute intervals will be used for sampling over this period as a source for the paired t-test to assess confidence in the winner.
Modelling and Hypothesis Testing
"No Border" won in each case for donations/impression and amount50/impression with increases of 17.10% and 24.03% respectively. The student's t-test was used to assess confidence over each metric and the confidence in the winner for donations/impression and amount50/impression is at least 97.5% in each case. This is a significant win for the "No Border" banner.
TOTAL DONATIONS "No Border": 320 TOTAL DONATIONS "Navy Border": 268 TOTAL AMOUNT50* RAISED "No Border": $5270.44 TOTAL AMOUNT50* RAISED "Navy Border": $6801.99 * AMOUNT50 indicates the total amount raised where all donations greater than $50 are taken to be a donation of $50.
DONATIONS PER IMPRESSION: Between 97.5% and 99.0% confident about the winner. Border / No Border Compare -- 2010-12-16 19:50:00 - 2010-12-16 21:10:00 item 1 = No border item 2 = Navy border The winner No border had a 17.10% increase. interval mean1 mean2 stddev1 stddev2 0 0.00014 0.00014 0.00011 0.00002 1 0.00015 0.00012 0.00003 0.00006 2 0.00017 0.00012 0.00005 0.00002 3 0.00017 0.00015 0.00000 0.00001 Overall Parameters: mean1 mean2 stddev1 stddev2 0.00016 0.00014 0.00006 0.00003
AMOUNT50 PER IMPRESSION: Between 97.5% and 99.0% confident about the winner. Border / No Border Compare -- 2010-12-16 19:50:00 - 2010-12-16 21:10:00 item 1 = No border item 2 = Navy border The winner No border had a 24.03% increase. interval mean1 mean2 stddev1 stddev2 0 0.00320 0.00289 0.00218 0.00013 1 0.00292 0.00278 0.00119 0.00093 2 0.00344 0.00236 0.00060 0.00228 3 0.00386 0.00279 0.00067 0.00052 Overall Parameters: mean1 mean2 stddev1 stddev2 0.00336 0.00271 0.00132 0.00126
- Campaign = "20101216JA029"
- "Animated Progress Meter" utm_source = "20101216_JA013B_US"
- "Static Progress Meter" utm_source = "20101216_JA013C_US"