Fundraising 2010/Report/Draft Test 9

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[edit]

For additional documentation on the testing methodology please see the following pages:


Banners[edit]

Border Banner. This is a static banner and features the text "Please read: An urgent appeal from Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales.". This is the "Light Border" the "Heavy Border" is about twice as thick.


Result[edit]

Test Time: 2010-12-16 23:30:00 UTC - 2010-12-17 00:10:00 UTC
Sampling Interval = 2 minutes
Testing Interval = 40 minutes
Total Number of Samples per Class = 20


TEST RESULT INCONCLUSIVE


(*) The rate of donations per banner impression over a fixed time interval.

(**) The rate of amount50 per banner impression over a fixed time interval. Amount50 is the dollar amount raised from donations initiated under a given banner where all donations of more than $50 are recorded as $50 donations. This counters the skewing effect of outlier donations.

Data Analysis[edit]

This section analyzes and interprets the results of the tests.

Data Consistency and Cleaning[edit]

The plots below display the counts of the data sources over the testing period as verification of the consistency of the donation pipeline data used in testing. It is of note that there are a couple of intervals where the impressions dipped down to zero, however these were sparse enough not to effect the quality of the data significantly. It should also be noted that the data is analyzed over a period at least as large as the full testing period and that the testing period was chosen based on the period of time where significant hits and donations were observed.

It seems that several impressions were being seen for the test campaign on the "Heavy Border" banner that are in excess of what should be there. This likely has something to do with impressions coming from a concurrently running campaign on which this same banner was also featured. The bottom-most plot shows the impressions from the other campaign which may be compared to the impressions from the test campaign. The test period was therefore chosen to cut out the strange impression results although there appears to exist at least a small amount of noise through the entire period.

Impressions broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Donations broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Donations/Impression broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Amount50/Impression broken out in two minute intervals over the test period.


Impressions broken out in two minute intervals over the test period for an earlier campaign. This shows that several impressions were going to this banner from a separate campaign and correspond with the times abberations were observed in the test campaign.

Analyzing the above plots the donation and impression data appear to be quite regular over the interval 2010-12-16 23:30:00 UTC - 2010-12-17 00:10:00 UTC. Therefore, two minute intervals will be used for sampling over this period as a source for the paired t-test to assess confidence in the winner.

Modelling and Hypothesis Testing[edit]

"Light Border" won in each case for donations/impression and amount50/impression with increases of 2.60% and 14.59% respectively. The student's t-test was used to assess confidence over each metric and the confidence in the winner for donations/impression and amount50/impression is at least 60.0% and 75.0% respectively. This result is not significant and the banners perform effectively the same.

Mean and standard deviation over test intervals over Donations / Impression.


Mean and standard deviation over test intervals over Amount50 / Impression

TOTAL DONATIONS "Light Border": 79
TOTAL DONATIONS "Heavy Border": 78

TOTAL AMOUNT50* RAISED "Light Border": $1755.00
TOTAL AMOUNT50* RAISED "Heavy Border": $1506.23

* AMOUNT50 indicates the total amount raised where all donations greater than $50 are taken to be a donation of $50.


DONATIONS PER IMPRESSION:

Between 60.0% and 75.0% confident about the winner.

Bold Border Compare -- 2010-12-16 23:30:00 - 2010-12-17 00:10:00

item 1  = Heavy Bold Border
item 2  = Light Bold Border

The winner "Light Bold Border" had a 2.60% increase.

interval	mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2

0		0.00011		0.00012		0.00003		0.00006
1		0.00012		0.00012		0.00003		0.00005


Overall Parameters:

mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2
0.00012		0.00012		0.00003		0.00005


AMOUNT50 PER IMPRESSION:

Between 75.0% and 90.0% confident about the winner.

Bold Border Compare -- 2010-12-16 23:30:00 - 2010-12-17 00:10:00

item 1  = Heavy Bold Border
item 2  = Light Bold Border

The winner "Light Bold Border" had a 14.59% increase.

interval	mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2

0		0.00202		0.00238		0.00089		0.00156
1		0.00247		0.00276		0.00086		0.00037


Overall Parameters:

mean1		mean2		stddev1		stddev2
0.00225		0.00257		0.00088		0.00113

Endnotes[edit]

  1. Campaign = "20101216JA029"
  2. "Animated Progress Meter" utm_source = "20101216_JA013B_US"
  3. "Static Progress Meter" utm_source = "20101216_JA013C_US"