| @metadata | | sourceLanguage | "en" |
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| priorityLanguages | |
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| allowOnlyPriorityLanguages | true |
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| description | "video in Introduction to Partnership Building (computer-graded exercises) - Basics of partnership building for Wikimedia volunteers, with computer-graded exercises." |
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| label | "WikiLearn - Introduction to Partnership Building (computer-graded exercises) - video: Contingency plans" |
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|
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| display_name | "Contingency plans" |
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| subtitle-330-4430-1 | "So, how do we plan for trouble?" |
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| subtitle-4460-7220-2 | "These are the principles in one slide for your convenience." |
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| subtitle-7580-9740-3 | "How do we actually go about planning for trouble?" |
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| subtitle-11820-20700-4 | "So one way we can do that is using what we will call a "contingency plan"." |
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| subtitle-21600-26940-5 | "Contingency plan, and a contingency is just a fancy word for "possible future" |
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| subtitle-26940-29370-6 | "occurrence", something that may or may not happen." |
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| subtitle-30030-31440-7 | "That's a contingency." |
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| subtitle-31740-37470-8 | "And a contingency plan is a set of such possible occurrences." |
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| subtitle-38300-42350-9 | "Usually only negative ones are discussed in a contingency plan." |
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| subtitle-43100-49970-10 | "And what is our plan for mitigating the contingencies, which is another fancy word" |
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| subtitle-49970-56000-11 | "that means reducing the impact, reducing the negative effect, or even eliminating the" |
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| subtitle-56000-60200-12 | "negative effect of the contingency, of the unexpected occurrence." |
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| subtitle-62320-66480-13 | "Not unexpected! Of the future occurrence, because here we are expecting it." |
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| subtitle-67120-68830-14 | "So that is a contingency plan." |
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| subtitle-68830-72280-15 | "And how do we go about making one?" |
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| subtitle-72970-79750-16 | "So we just sit and try to think up things that could go wrong, in the context of your" |
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| subtitle-79750-84550-17 | "project plan. You look at your project plan, your planned activities, your theory of" |
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| subtitle-84550-92740-18 | "change, and you try to think "in what ways could this go wrong?" And for every plan," |
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| subtitle-92740-95260-19 | "there are at least several ways it could go wrong." |
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| subtitle-96010-97900-20 | "All kinds of things could go wrong." |
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| subtitle-98320-103690-21 | "But these things that could go wrong are different from each other, in terms of how" |
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| subtitle-103690-110410-22 | "likely they are, and also in terms of how damaging they would be, if they happen." |
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| subtitle-111850-118060-23 | "So for each such scenario or each such problem that you think up, you want to ask" |
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| subtitle-118060-120870-24 | "yourself, "how likely is it?" |
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| subtitle-120880-126370-25 | "Roughly." Obviously, none of us is a professional risk assessor." |
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| subtitle-126460-131830-26 | "That's an actual profession that is used in the insurance business, for example." |
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| subtitle-132460-137980-27 | "So most of us are not risk assessors, but still we usually are able to assess a very" |
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| subtitle-137980-143740-28 | "rough, intuitive estimate of how likely things are." |
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| subtitle-144280-149950-29 | "For example, when I leave my house, I could be run over by a bus." |
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| subtitle-150670-152230-30 | "That is a possibility." |
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| subtitle-152230-153640-31 | "It's something that could happen." |
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| subtitle-154390-161620-32 | "But the fact that I do leave my house quite frequently does mean that I am, even if" |
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| subtitle-161620-167200-33 | "subconsciously, assessing that likelihood, to be very, very low." |
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| subtitle-168320-172580-34 | "If I thought that it was 80% likely that I would be hit by a bus when I leave my house," |
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| subtitle-172580-174020-35 | "I probably wouldn't leave my house." |
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| subtitle-174230-175580-36 | "That's a huge risk." |
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| subtitle-177770-183110-37 | "But if I think my chances of being run over by a bus are one in a million, then it's" |
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| subtitle-183110-186890-38 | "probably a risk I'm willing to take in order to live my life." |
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| subtitle-187760-196040-39 | "So we all do such intuitive, maybe even subconscious calculations of risk when we go" |
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| subtitle-196040-199400-40 | "about our lives, when we cross the road, when we get into a car." |
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| subtitle-199400-201380-41 | "When we take an airplane." |
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| subtitle-202380-205320-42 | "And so that's the kind of thing we need to do for our partnership." |
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| subtitle-205320-209970-43 | "But we'll put it in writing and we'll try to do it in a slightly more disciplined way." |
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| subtitle-210450-217950-44 | "So, for example, what if we have an event and we're counting on the fact that the" |
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| subtitle-217950-222930-45 | "place, the venue, would have Internet, would have WiFi." |
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| subtitle-225180-228690-46 | "It's possible that they won't, even though they said they would, etc.." |
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| subtitle-228870-233340-47 | "It's possible that their equipment failed or there's some outage in their Internet" |
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| subtitle-233340-235310-48 | "provider. That sort of thing happens, right?" |
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| subtitle-236100-237960-49 | "How likely is it?" |
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| subtitle-237960-239850-50 | "How likely is it that their Internet would fail?" |
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| subtitle-241080-242310-51 | "Well, it depends." |
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| subtitle-242520-246420-52 | "It depends on what we know about the place, and our country." |
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| subtitle-246660-250590-53 | "Some countries have more outages than others, so we can estimate it." |
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| subtitle-250590-252660-54 | "Maybe it's a 10% chance the Internet won't work." |
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| subtitle-253110-255060-55 | "Maybe it's less than 1%." |
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| subtitle-257070-263160-56 | "Maybe from our experience, this place loses connectivity on average every 2 hours, so" |
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| subtitle-263160-265110-57 | "it's very likely there will be an outage." |
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| subtitle-267370-271120-58 | "Whatever it is, we need to try and assign some kind of number to it." |
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| subtitle-271120-275530-59 | "And then we need to ask ourselves, "okay, suppose there is no WiFi." |
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| subtitle-275560-277050-60 | "What is the impact?" |
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| subtitle-277060-281440-61 | "How would it affect my project, my partnership, my work?" |
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| subtitle-281440-284850-62 | "Would it be an inconvenience?" |
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| subtitle-285630-294750-63 | "Would it cause me my partnership to have less impact?" And the slides are slightly" |
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| subtitle-294750-295770-64 | "confusing here." |
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| subtitle-296220-302430-65 | "The negative impact is that we would have less positive impact is what I meant here." |
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| subtitle-303270-308700-66 | "We would have less positive impact, programmatic impact." |
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| subtitle-309210-312360-67 | "So would it have us have no impact?" |
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| subtitle-312360-315690-68 | "Would it cause our event, our program to have no impact?" |
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| subtitle-315690-318900-69 | "If this happens, then we will have no positive impact." |
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| subtitle-319410-324820-70 | "Or is the risk to be damage to property, or physical harm to people?" |
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| subtitle-324840-326010-71 | "These are very different things." |
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| subtitle-326430-332370-72 | "If something may happen and if it does happen, would cause inconvenience, that's" |
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| subtitle-332370-336090-73 | "different from something that may happen and would cause physical harm." |
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| subtitle-336920-338750-74 | "We need to think about it differently too." |
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| subtitle-345800-353150-75 | "So again, we think about the likelihood of a certain contingency, and about its negative" |
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| subtitle-353150-358580-76 | "impact on our program, on our programmatic impact, on our work." |
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| subtitle-360290-369720-77 | "For example: For each contingency, we want to also think up the possible" |
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| subtitle-369720-377400-78 | "mitigations, the possible ways we might deal with that contingency, and what they would" |
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| subtitle-377400-380640-79 | "cost, in terms of time or money." |
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| subtitle-382110-387870-80 | "Because some mitigations don't cost any money and effort up front." |
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| subtitle-388050-392220-81 | "They don't require any investment in case that something happens." |
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| subtitle-392430-397020-82 | "Rather, they are just becoming part of our plan, so we can tell ourselves, "okay, if X" |
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| subtitle-397020-398970-83 | "happens, we will just do Y"." |
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| subtitle-399000-400430-84 | "It's an option we have." |
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| subtitle-400440-402110-85 | "We don't need to prepare for it." |
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| subtitle-402120-403950-86 | "We don't need to invest anything." |
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| subtitle-403950-408750-87 | "We just know what we're going to do, if a certain kind of problem happens." |
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| subtitle-409980-415590-88 | "But some mitigations require us to spend money or effort in advance." |
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| subtitle-416190-424230-89 | "We need to decide in advance whether, given the likelihood and the potential impact that" |
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| subtitle-424230-431760-90 | "a certain contingency could have, whether we should spend the time or effort to create the" |
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| subtitle-431760-433560-91 | "mitigation, to create the potential mitigation." |
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| subtitle-434100-439050-92 | "Or if we say, you know what, that's really expensive and it's quite unlikely." |
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| subtitle-439050-442200-93 | "So we will take that calculated risk." |
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| subtitle-442620-448440-94 | "That is a decision we need to make if our mitigation is not just, "Oh, I guess I'll do" |
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| subtitle-448440-454980-95 | "that then", but "in that case, we will need this equipment" or "we will need some" |
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| subtitle-454980-455580-96 | "backup"." |
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