Research talk:Modeling monthly active editors

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Thursday, July 3rd[edit]

New linear models fit to R:New active editors for mobile and desktop.

New active editors per month are plotted over time for mobile and desktop interfaces with a simple linear model fit to the last year and extrapolated for 4 years.
New active editors rates. New active editors per month are plotted over time for mobile and desktop interfaces with a simple linear model fit to the last year and extrapolated for 4 years.
The proportion of new active editors who register via the mobile interface is plotted based on raw data and a simple linear model fit to the last year and extrapolated for 4 years.
New active editor proportion. The proportion of new active editors who register via the mobile interface is plotted based on raw data and a simple linear model fit to the last year and extrapolated for 4 years.
month_date registrations.desktop registrations.upper.desktop registrations.lower.desktop new_active_editors.desktop new_active_editors.upper.desktop new_active_editors.lower.desktop registrations.mobile registrations.upper.mobile registrations.lower.mobile new_active_editors.mobile new_active_editors.upper.mobile new_active_editors.lower.mobile mobile_prop source mobile_prop.upper mobile_prop.lower nae_prop nae_prop.upper nae_prop.lower
2013-05-01 123902 123902 123902 10098 10098 10098 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 data 0 0 0 0 0
2013-06-01 114664 114664 114664 8809 8809 8809 4341 4341 4341 51 51 51 0.03647746 data 0.03647746 0.03647746 0.005756208 0.005756208 0.005756208
2013-07-01 127795 127795 127795 9337 9337 9337 13587 13587 13587 212 212 212 0.09610134 data 0.09610134 0.09610134 0.02220128 0.02220128 0.02220128
2013-08-01 127809 127809 127809 8533 8533 8533 29564 29564 29564 776 776 776 0.1878594 data 0.1878594 0.1878594 0.08336019 0.08336019 0.08336019
2013-09-01 125092 125092 125092 8310 8310 8310 27894 27894 27894 689 689 689 0.1823304 data 0.1823304 0.1823304 0.07656406 0.07656406 0.07656406
2013-10-01 127419 127419 127419 9786 9786 9786 31535 31535 31535 748 748 748 0.1983907 data 0.1983907 0.1983907 0.07100816 0.07100816 0.07100816
2013-11-01 120626 120626 120626 9099 9099 9099 31558 31558 31558 724 724 724 0.2073674 data 0.2073674 0.2073674 0.07370457 0.07370457 0.07370457
2013-12-01 117321 117321 117321 8723 8723 8723 33707 33707 33707 817 817 817 0.2231838 data 0.2231838 0.2231838 0.08563941 0.08563941 0.08563941
2014-01-01 123816 123816 123816 9856 9856 9856 35098 35098 35098 1043 1043 1043 0.2208616 data 0.2208616 0.2208616 0.09569685 0.09569685 0.09569685
2014-02-01 109237 109237 109237 9142 9142 9142 30002 30002 30002 880 880 880 0.2154712 data 0.2154712 0.2154712 0.08780682 0.08780682 0.08780682
2014-03-01 122768 122768 122768 10198 10198 10198 30940 30940 30940 967 967 967 0.2012908 data 0.2012908 0.2012908 0.08660994 0.08660994 0.08660994
2014-04-01 118624 118624 118624 9492 9492 9492 32005 32005 32005 1004 1004 1004 0.2124757 data 0.2124757 0.2124757 0.09565549 0.09565549 0.09565549
2014-05-01 127582 127582 127582 9804 9804 9804 36624 36624 36624 1555 1555 1555 0.2230369 data 0.2230369 0.2230369 0.1368959 0.1368959 0.1368959
2014-06-01 120678 124033.4 117322.5 9318.748 9553.669 9083.827 37587.65 40642.56 34532.74 1348.888 1465.806 1231.97 0.2374972 projection 0.2519367 0.2224894 0.1264468 0.1359172 0.1167664
2014-07-01 120229.9 123781.7 116678.1 9308.407 9557.076 9059.738 38799.47 42254.21 35344.73 1430.067 1562.288 1297.847 0.2439767 projection 0.2600513 0.2271882 0.1331723 0.1437155 0.1223662
2014-08-01 119767 123524.8 116009.2 9297.721 9560.813 9034.629 40051.7 43929.94 36173.46 1513.952 1662.381 1365.523 0.2506071 projection 0.2683614 0.2319697 0.1400294 0.1516757 0.1280589
2014-09-01 119304 123270.5 115337.5 9287.035 9564.736 9009.334 41303.92 45613.11 36994.73 1597.837 1762.76 1432.915 0.2571724 projection 0.276582 0.2366925 0.1467943 0.1595287 0.1336681
2014-10-01 118856 123026.5 114685.4 9276.694 9568.684 8984.705 42515.75 47247.15 37784.34 1679.017 1860.098 1497.935 0.2634647 projection 0.2844447 0.2412172 0.1532549 0.1670228 0.1390243
2014-11-01 118393 122776.4 114009.7 9266.009 9572.896 8959.121 43767.97 48939.68 38596.26 1762.902 1960.835 1564.969 0.2699045 projection 0.2924693 0.2458529 0.1598437 0.1746559 0.1444901
2014-12-01 117945 122535.8 113354.1 9255.668 9577.084 8934.251 44979.8 50580.59 39379 1844.081 2058.436 1629.726 0.2760771 projection 0.300136 0.2503052 0.1661372 0.1819354 0.1497168
2015-01-01 117482 122288.7 112675.3 9244.982 9581.512 8908.452 46232.02 52278.61 40185.43 1927.966 2159.383 1696.549 0.282395 projection 0.3079549 0.2548746 0.1725566 0.189347 0.1550559
2015-02-01 117019 122042.9 111995.2 9234.296 9586.028 8882.564 47484.24 53978.59 40989.9 2011.851 2260.404 1763.298 0.2886523 projection 0.3156686 0.2594151 0.1788925 0.1966475 0.1603349
2015-03-01 116600.9 121821.8 111379.9 9224.644 9590.175 8859.114 48615.28 55515.41 41715.16 2087.618 2351.702 1823.535 0.2942526 projection 0.3225459 0.2634929 0.1845447 0.2031471 0.165053
2015-04-01 116137.9 121578 110697.8 9213.959 9594.831 8833.086 49867.5 57218.13 42516.88 2171.503 2452.828 1890.179 0.3003969 projection 0.3300614 0.2679836 0.190726 0.2102403 0.1702229
2015-05-01 115689.9 121342.9 110036.9 9203.618 9599.395 8807.84 51079.33 58866.96 43291.7 2252.683 2550.733 1954.633 0.3062875 projection 0.3372366 0.2723064 0.1966326 0.2170033 0.1751738
2015-06-01 115226.9 121100.7 109353.2 9192.932 9604.166 8781.698 52331.55 60571.65 44091.46 2336.568 2651.935 2021.201 0.3123182 projection 0.3445514 0.2767506 0.2026599 0.2238889 0.1802369
2015-07-01 114778.9 120866.9 108690.8 9182.591 9608.828 8756.353 53543.38 62222.08 44864.68 2417.747 2749.9 2085.594 0.3181004 projection 0.3515353 0.2810303 0.2084204 0.2304548 0.1850869
2015-08-01 114315.9 120626 108005.8 9171.905 9613.689 8730.121 54795.6 63928.17 45663.04 2501.632 2851.156 2152.108 0.3240205 projection 0.3586552 0.2854315 0.2142994 0.2371406 0.1900482
2015-09-01 113852.9 120385.7 107320.2 9161.219 9618.589 8703.849 56047.83 65634.83 46460.82 2585.517 2952.433 2218.601 0.3298856 projection 0.3656786 0.2898118 0.2201051 0.2437277 0.1949592
2015-10-01 113404.9 120153.6 106656.3 9150.878 9623.365 8678.392 57259.66 67286.9 47232.41 2666.696 3050.461 2282.931 0.3355099 projection 0.3723849 0.2940313 0.2256551 0.2500104 0.199665
2015-11-01 112941.9 119914.2 105969.7 9140.193 9628.331 8652.054 58511.88 68994.46 48029.3 2750.581 3151.773 2349.39 0.341269 projection 0.3792229 0.2983719 0.2313206 0.2564092 0.20448
2015-12-01 112493.9 119682.9 105305 9129.852 9633.165 8626.538 59723.71 70647.29 48800.12 2831.761 3249.831 2413.691 0.3467921 projection 0.3857531 0.3025538 0.2367374 0.2625133 0.2090944
2016-01-01 112031 119444.3 104617.6 9119.166 9638.186 8600.145 60975.93 72355.54 49596.31 2915.646 3351.169 2480.122 0.352448 projection 0.3924124 0.3068561 0.2422677 0.2687313 0.2138168
2016-02-01 111568 119206 103930 9108.48 9643.232 8573.728 62228.15 74064.08 50392.22 2999.531 3452.519 2546.543 0.3580526 projection 0.3989832 0.3111395 0.2477311 0.2748602 0.2184932
2016-03-01 111134.9 118983.4 103286.4 9098.484 9647.972 8548.996 63399.58 75662.63 51136.53 3078.004 3547.338 2608.67 0.3632496 projection 0.4050516 0.3151296 0.2527826 0.2805147 0.222827
2016-04-01 110671.9 118745.7 102598.2 9087.798 9653.058 8522.538 64651.81 77371.65 51931.96 3161.889 3648.706 2675.072 0.3687567 projection 0.411456 0.3193771 0.25812 0.2864763 0.2274166
2016-05-01 110223.9 118515.9 101931.9 9077.457 9657.998 8496.916 65863.63 79025.74 52701.53 3243.068 3746.812 2739.325 0.3740392 projection 0.4175741 0.3234703 0.2632248 0.2921657 0.2318165
2016-06-01 109760.9 118278.7 101243.1 9066.771 9663.12 8470.423 67115.86 80735.15 53496.56 3326.953 3848.194 2805.713 0.3794498 projection 0.4238153 0.3276821 0.2684385 0.297964 0.2363206
2016-07-01 109312.9 118049.4 100576.4 9056.43 9668.091 8444.769 68327.68 82389.58 54265.79 3408.133 3946.313 2869.952 0.3846401 projection 0.4297784 0.3317412 0.2734258 0.3034985 0.240639
2016-08-01 108849.9 117812.7 99887.19 9045.744 9673.243 8418.246 69579.91 84099.31 55060.5 3492.018 4047.708 2936.328 0.3899567 projection 0.4358624 0.3359182 0.27852 0.3091398 0.2450601
2016-09-01 108387 117576.1 99197.82 9035.059 9678.409 8391.709 70832.13 85809.18 55855.08 3575.903 4149.108 3002.698 0.3952265 projection 0.4418686 0.3400778 0.2835551 0.3147039 0.24944
2016-10-01 107938.9 117347.3 98530.51 9024.718 9683.42 8366.015 72043.96 87464.01 56623.9 3657.082 4247.242 3066.922 0.4002823 projection 0.4476085 0.3440868 0.2883725 0.3200162 0.2536399
2016-11-01 107476 117111.1 97840.79 9014.032 9688.61 8339.454 73296.18 89174.12 57418.23 3740.967 4348.652 3133.283 0.4054617 projection 0.453466 0.3482126 0.2932942 0.3254325 0.2579404
2016-12-01 107027.9 116882.7 97173.17 9003.691 9693.642 8313.739 74508.01 90829.17 58186.84 3822.146 4446.794 3197.499 0.4104312 projection 0.4590645 0.3521891 0.2980037 0.3306047 0.2620645
2017-01-01 106565 116646.8 96483.15 8993.005 9698.853 8287.157 75760.23 92539.49 58980.97 3906.031 4548.211 3263.852 0.4155226 projection 0.4647786 0.3562816 0.3028158 0.3358791 0.2662878
2017-02-01 106102 116411 95793 8982.319 9704.073 8260.566 77012.45 94249.89 59775.01 3989.917 4649.632 3330.201 0.42057 projection 0.4704218 0.3603574 0.3075735 0.3410834 0.2704727
2017-03-01 105683.8 116198.1 95169.52 8972.668 9708.796 8236.539 78143.49 95794.85 60492.14 4065.684 4741.241 3390.127 0.4250918 projection 0.475459 0.3640246 0.311825 0.345725 0.2742201
2017-04-01 105220.9 115962.6 94479.13 8961.982 9714.033 8209.931 79395.71 97505.4 61286.02 4149.569 4842.667 3456.471 0.4300573 projection 0.4809707 0.368069 0.3164819 0.3507997 0.2783334
2017-05-01 104772.8 115734.8 93810.9 8951.641 9719.108 8184.174 80607.54 99160.85 62054.23 4230.748 4940.825 3520.671 0.4348224 projection 0.4862407 0.3719674 0.3209394 0.3556478 0.282279
2017-06-01 104309.9 115499.5 93120.29 8940.955 9724.36 8157.55 81859.76 100871.5 62847.98 4314.633 5042.257 3587.01 0.4397052 projection 0.4916213 0.3759798 0.3254954 0.3605936 0.2863202
2017-07-01 103861.8 115271.8 92451.86 8930.614 9729.45 8131.779 83071.59 102527.1 63616.06 4395.812 5140.419 3651.206 0.4443913 projection 0.4967665 0.3798475 0.3298568 0.3653192 0.2901969
2017-08-01 103398.9 115036.7 91761.06 8919.928 9734.715 8105.142 84323.81 104237.9 64409.69 4479.698 5241.855 3717.54 0.4491935 projection 0.5020205 0.3838284 0.3343151 0.3701409 0.2941681
2017-09-01 102935.9 114801.6 91070.17 8909.243 9739.987 8078.499 85576.04 105948.8 65203.27 4563.583 5343.294 3783.871 0.4539555 projection 0.5072119 0.3877934 0.338725 0.3749013 0.2981043
2017-10-01 102487.9 114574.3 90401.49 8898.902 9745.094 8052.709 86787.87 107604.5 65971.2 4644.762 5441.462 3848.061 0.4585261 projection 0.5121772 0.3916156 0.3429472 0.3794508 0.3018806
2017-11-01 102024.9 114339.4 89710.43 8888.216 9750.377 8026.055 88040.09 109315.5 66764.67 4728.647 5542.905 3914.389 0.4632104 projection 0.5172485 0.3955497 0.347264 0.3840938 0.3057494
2017-12-01 101576.9 114112.1 89041.6 8877.875 9755.495 8000.255 89251.92 110971.3 67532.51 4809.826 5641.076 3978.576 0.4677068 projection 0.5220996 0.3993422 0.3513977 0.3885319 0.3094615
2018-01-01 101113.9 113877.4 88350.41 8867.189 9760.788 7973.591 90504.14 112682.4 68325.91 4893.711 5742.522 4044.901 0.4723153 projection 0.5270549 0.4032459 0.3556243 0.393062 0.3132646
2018-02-01 100650.9 113642.7 87659.15 8856.503 9766.085 7946.921 91756.36 114393.5 69119.26 4977.596 5843.969 4111.224 0.4768861 projection 0.5319527 0.4071342 0.3598063 0.3975361 0.317035
2018-03-01 100232.8 113430.8 87034.72 8846.852 9770.874 7922.829 92887.4 115939 69835.81 5053.364 5935.6 4171.128 0.4809824 projection 0.5363281 0.4106332 0.3635457 0.4015301 0.3204128
2018-04-01 99769.81 113196.3 86343.34 8836.166 9776.18 7896.152 94139.62 117650.2 70629.09 5137.249 6037.049 4237.448 0.4854824 projection 0.5411194 0.4144926 0.3676445 0.4059008 0.3241222
2018-05-01 99321.78 112969.4 85674.21 8825.825 9781.319 7870.331 95351.45 119306.1 71396.76 5218.428 6135.228 4301.628 0.4898026 projection 0.545704 0.4182133 0.3715703 0.4100799 0.3276818
2018-06-01 98858.82 112734.9 84982.71 8815.139 9786.633 7843.645 96603.67 121017.4 72189.98 5302.313 6236.68 4367.946 0.4942313 projection 0.5503887 0.4220432 0.3755857 0.4143472 0.3313296
2018-07-01 98410.79 112508.1 84313.47 8804.798 9791.779 7817.817 97815.5 122673.4 72957.58 5383.492 6334.86 4432.124 0.4984832 projection 0.5548719 0.4257354 0.3794321 0.4184282 0.3348304
2018-08-01 97947.82 112273.8 83621.88 8794.112 9797.1 7791.125 99067.72 124384.7 73750.75 5467.377 6436.314 4498.44 0.5028422 projection 0.5594535 0.4295362 0.3833665 0.4225958 0.3384181
2018-09-01 97484.85 112039.5 82930.24 8783.427 9802.425 7764.429 100319.9 126096 74543.89 5551.262 6537.77 4564.755 0.5071664 projection 0.5639839 0.4333223 0.3872607 0.426714 0.3419758
2018-10-01 97036.82 111812.8 82260.86 8773.086 9807.58 7738.591 101531.8 127752.1 75311.42 5632.442 6635.953 4628.93 0.5113184 projection 0.5683203 0.4369724 0.3909917 0.4306533 0.3453906
2018-11-01 96573.85 111578.6 81569.13 8762.4 9812.911 7711.889 102784 129463.5 76104.51 5716.327 6737.41 4695.243 0.5155754 projection 0.5727526 0.4407298 0.3948087 0.434677 0.3488904
2018-12-01 96125.82 111352 80899.68 8752.059 9818.072 7686.046 103995.8 131119.7 76871.99 5797.506 6835.595 4759.416 0.519663 projection 0.5769957 0.4443524 0.3984659 0.4385262 0.3522499
2019-01-01 95662.86 111117.8 80207.86 8741.373 9823.408 7659.338 105248 132831.1 77665.04 5881.391 6937.054 4825.728 0.5238543 projection 0.581333 0.4480816 0.4022079 0.4424585 0.3556934
2019-02-01 95199.89 110883.8 79516.02 8730.687 9828.747 7632.628 106500.3 134542.5 78458.07 5965.276 7038.514 4892.038 0.5280128 projection 0.5856233 0.4517966 0.4059126 0.4463456 0.3591086
2019-03-01 94781.73 110672.4 78891.09 8721.036 9833.571 7608.5 107631.3 136088.3 79174.33 6041.043 7130.155 4951.931 0.531741 projection 0.5894585 0.4551398 0.4092271 0.4498183 0.3621695
2019-04-01 94318.76 110438.3 78199.17 8710.35 9838.915 7581.785 108883.5 137799.7 79967.32 6124.928 7231.616 5018.241 0.5358381 projection 0.5936612 0.4588279 0.4128624 0.4536214 0.3655321
2019-05-01 93870.73 110211.9 77529.54 8700.009 9844.088 7555.93 110095.4 139456 80734.72 6206.108 7329.805 5082.41 0.5397729 projection 0.5976855 0.4623837 0.4163464 0.4572608 0.3687604

Discussion[edit]