User:Renklauf/Barnstarred Editors Analyses

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Overview[edit]

The E3 team has been monitoring English Wikipedia editors as they make their 1000th main namespace edit. Upon notification of this threshold being broken for each editor a barnstar is delivered by staff to the editor.


Barnstarred Editors with Timestamps of Barnstar receipt - as of May 17th 2012

Gareth Griffith-Jones	20120405102105
Gamer9832	20120405104914
TheJJJunk	20120405181336
Amateur55	20120406023957
YuMaNuMa	20120406150220
Haruo	20120406191455
Arius1998	20120412170412
TheXenomorph1	20120412170518
Ferret	20120412170729
Pmccawley	20120412170835
Wesley Mouse	20120412171142
Nickyp88	20120412171247
Rschwieb	20120412171353
Cactus Wren	20120412171600
Jim Craigie	20120412171705
Mauri96	20120412171811
Skteosk	20120412172118
Al Silonov	20120412172325
Ne0Freedom	20120412172325
GrahamSmith	20120412172431
Soulparadox	20120412172537
Melbourne.sport	20120412172643
NBA Fan44	20120412172643
Graemp	20120412172748
Peter Deer	20120412172748
Khanassassin	20120412172854
Paris1127	20120412172854
WtW-Suzaku	20120412172854
Glennwells	20120412173000
Egeymi	20120412173107
MadSkilz252	20120412173107
Jessemv	20120412173213
Element16	20120412205041
Khani100	20120412222120
Staszek Lem	20120412234552
Nbdelboy	20120412235203
Frankm.russo	20120413020123
Hanchi	20120413022351
Caidh	20120413032336
Mklobas	20120413180522
Thom2002	20120413180522
Flyingidiot	20120413185154
Hoalong	20120413210923
Miguel raul	20120414051014
Hounder4	20120414110756
Fahim Talha	20120414153638
Mewulwe	20120414172648
DoctorKubla	20120414182225
DanWiki2011	20120414203347
Candleabracadabra	20120414203956
Isa Roarte	20120414222301
Ducknish	20120414223111
Tom.Reding	20120415065612
Alexxander3000	20120415144453
MauriManya	20120415145000
Nostalgiacritic	20120415162200
Aliw136	20120415170330
RioHondo	20120415175308
Davykamanzi	20120415185348
Mjs1991	20120415231124
Daniel E. Romero	20120416000300
Ultimate Destiny	20120416031357
Nitefirre	20120416070114
A3 nm	20120416112756
Q Chris	20120416122336
Wikiukas	20120417103642
Anatomist90	20120417135441
Mugregg	20120417145320
Thefrood	20120417151839
Sumone10154	20120417210004
ZZ47	20120418110321
Thakaran	20120418150949
Prawn3944	20120418161431
Robynloud	20120418162141
Zamyusoff	20120419043652
Hallucegenia	20120419092946
Biosthmors	20120419180649
Hippo99	20120419210537
Meiskam	20120419222629
GinGin-1995	20120420063020
AnelZukic	20120420084040
Marcusaurelius161	20120420142005
Lmmnhn	20120420143216
Impru20	20120420144026
Charles Edwin Shipp	20120420190505
Andyross	20120420230530
Lpmfx	20120421012254
Hgb1217	20120421050910
Parsica	20120421133307
Melvalevis	20120421145057
F=q(E+v^B)	20120421181903
Monstrelet	20120421184020
TangoTizerWolfstone	20120421200413
Castncoot	20120421214919
Mizzou415	20120422025120
Wikielwikingo	20120422030936
Funnysheep	20120422085305
Wa3frp	20120422120905
Richardw	20120422132353
IxK85	20120422140119
Andy5421	20120422142940
Guest2625	20120422180549
Anxietycello	20120422202415
Uvghifds	20120422211752
JNicol	20120423082523
Smarojit	20120423083735
ElijahBosley	20120423135947
DLinth	20120423171948
ButOnMethItIs	20120423174004
22dragon22burn	20120423202546
Mttll	20120424091720
Guy Macon	20120424115055
A Werewolf	20120424163445
MasashiInoue	20120424182654
Mballen	20120424190923
Apteva	20120425004845
Gothicfilm	20120425095611
Sarahj2107	20120425115325
Gevorg89	20120425153639
Dac04	20120425162412
Bigshowandkane64	20120425185343
GWFrog	20120425191701
AnonymousAnimus	20120426125222
99puntos	20120426223005
Ceradon	20120427020525
DeknMike	20120427040640
Friends147	20120427141940
Mortyman	20120427174444
Ldavid1985	20120427233208
Bowei Huang 2	20120427235829
Darkslug	20120428002851
Arcandam	20120428025017
Percivl	20120428033850
Gook14	20120428055719
The1337gamer	20120428121604
Narutolovehinata5	20120428140311
Nocturnal781	20120429044346
Ghughesarch	20120429122620
Clithering	20120429141126
Arzun	20120429172726
JustPotteringAround	20120430012310
Sainsf	20120502120411
Letdemsay	20120502222510
Hahc21	20120502231149
MasterMind5991	20120502234520
Farsight001	20120503000738
Spike-from-NH	20120503005712
Amkilpatrick	20120503070253
Esc2003	20120503142113
Свифт	20120503161022
HLE	20120503165654
Ivolocy	20120503175029
JG66	20120510035653
Bushy moustache	20120510104500
Dusty777	20120510180235
MrNiceGuy1113	20120510191825
Maxtremus	20120510230339
Amolbot	20120510230746
AutomaticStrikeout	20120511012108
Arussom	20120511031620
GrindtXX	20120511112210
AnkhMorpork	20120511132224
Natureguy1980	20120511192103
IShadowed	20120512001608
FrankPoncherello	20120512053827
Willdude123	20120512112752
TaalVerbeteraar	20120512121122
Apwoolrich	20120512160745
G0700596	20120512184119
Erminameraz	20120512221429
Suredeath	20120512234025
Jihadcola	20120512234432
ZappaOMati	20120513005116
Danrolo	20120513162934
Adg1996	20120513173919
Pasicles	20120513225428
Smartie2thaMaxXx	20120514013204
Knightserbia	20120514033017
Small5th	20120514064214
Syafiq hazmy	20120514141037
F Ceragioli	20120514183112


Analysis[edit]

The list of editors meeting the threshold over the past few months, along with the timestamps on which each user received the barnstar, was used to generate counts of namespace 0 edits in the three days following the delivery of the barnstar. A second list of similar counts was also generated with the timestamp preceding the delivery of the barnstar by 90 days. The edit count distributions were used to produce a binomial variable: "The user edited at least once in the three days following the timestamp". Comparing this variable among the two groups indicates that increased edit activity was a strong predictor of being barnstarred.

In the test (post barnstar) group 89% of users made in edit in the three day period following the barnstar. In the earlier three day period only 44.5% of users went on to make any edits. While this could certainly be partly due to seasonal or editor lifetime dependency on edits the effect is strong that the barnstarring would almost certainly be a significant factor here.


Logistic Regression Analysis, Registered Users, Edit Events - R Output

Call:
glm(formula = template ~ metric, family = binomial(link = "logit"), 
    data = temp_df)

Deviance Residuals: 
    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
-1.4823  -0.6011   0.1497   0.9005   1.8974  

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)  -1.6194     0.2447  -6.617 3.68e-11 ***
metric        2.3125     0.2800   8.258  < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 504.61  on 363  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 417.84  on 362  degrees of freedom
AIC: 421.84

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4

"Samples in test:"   182

[1] "Summary of metric for test:"
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
 0.0000  1.0000  1.0000  0.8901  1.0000  1.0000 

[1] "Summary of metric for control:"
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
 0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.4451  1.0000  1.0000 


The three day period before the barnstarring was compared to three day periods at other points in the editor lifetimes. Only editors that hd made at least one edit previously in each period was observed. The periods observed begin at: The timestamp of the barnstarring (ToB), 30 days previous to ToB, 60 days previous to ToB, 90 days previous to ToB, ... , 360 days previous to Tob. As can be seen in the plots below the barnstarring had a drastic effect on editing volume and prevalence (the ToB period is the first bar in each plot).


Future Steps[edit]

Given that the analysis yielded strong results looking at an earlier period in the lifetime of the subject editors it would be very advisable to repeat this analysis using an independent group of controlled editors - that is editors that reach 1000 edits and do not receive barnstars.