Research:Active editor spike 2015
This graph shows a spike. What is it?
I generated seasonal decomposition plots for a number of large wikis. The data is based on active editor data generated from the databases (see the db definition used here).
|total ae||yoy change||yoy prop change||total ae||yoy change||yoy prop change|
Year-over-year change by wiki strata. This table presents the change in the overall count of active editors for wikis in three strata (large > 10k ae, 1k <= medium <= 10k & small < 1k).
Editor model breakdown
The main takeaways are the following:
- the spike appears to be real, to the best of our understanding it's not an artifact in the data as it was independently reproduced via different sources;
- January 2015 was the strongest month for English Wikipedia since June 2013;
- December 2014 was the first December ever (i.e. since 2001) not showing the typical seasonal drop (in fact in 2014 we had more active editors in December than in November, which is unusual);
- after removing the seasonal component, the resulting trend indicates that in 2014 the English WIkipedia decline slowed down and flattened;
- the spike seems to be present across many wikis (including Wikidata);
- it seems to affect many active editor groups (new, old & reactivated);