Grants:Programs/Wikimedia Research Fund/The use of Wikipedia as an electoral analysis tool. Review of elections in presidential regimes (2015-2021)
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Overview
Username
Applicant's Wikimedia username. If one is not provided, then the applicant's name will be provided for community review.
- federizaguirre
Project title
- The use of Wikipedia as an electoral analysis tool. Review of elections in presidential regimes (2015-2021)
Entity Receiving Funds
Provide the name of the individual or organization that would receive the funds.
- Federico Izaguirre Gallardo
- Catalina Solar Hurtado
Research proposal
Description
Description of the proposed project, including aims and approach. Be sure to clearly state the problem, why it is important, why previous approaches (if any) have been insufficient, and your methods to address it.
- In a context of debate on ways to make election analysis, this research aims to broaden the framework of studies related to the amount of searches and virtual traffic produced during a given event. In this sense, Wikipedia has positioned itself as an alternative from the academic world on the contribution of the measurement of searches on this site compared to other more researched platforms such as Twitter, Facebook or GoogleTrends.
To date, the use of Wikipedia as a tool for predicting or analyzing elections has been incipiently reviewed. While predictive models are insufficient due to the inability to disaggregate searches by country, being found today by language, these have tended to focus on the US and Western Europe, with a strong knowledge gap around countries in other latitudes such as Latin America, Oceania and Africa. Furthermore, these studies have not considered the level of digital penetration that countries have, which can lead to errors regarding the true insertion of Wikipedia according to each country.
Para esto se realizará una investigación de tipo cuantitativa a partir del desarrollo de un modelo analítico para examinar el tráfico de Wikipedia según el nivel de penetración digital en cada caso. Es por eso que, a través de datos recolectados de Wikipedia, se revisará la efectividad de estos instrumentos en 39 países con sistemas presidenciales entre 2016 y 2021. En este sentido, se analizarán los volúmenes de búsqueda, así como otros indicadores obtenidos del sitio Page View Toolforge en torno a períodos de 90, 30 y 7 días previos a cada elección. Esta selección se justifica debido a que la mayoría de países seleccionados han sido omitidos en este tipo de investigaciones. Las temporalidades escogidas permitirán revisar en detalle los principales patrones analizados según el tiempo de distancia hacia la elección. Se espera poder obtener como resultado una descripción de las principales tendencias en torno al tráfico digital en los distintos países, como también revisar si la penetración digital de los países influye en torno a estas tendencias mencionadas y su correlación con los resultados electorales de estos países.
Two central questions arise: What is the predictive capacity of Wikipedia's search volume for presidential elections? Is this supposed predictive capacity related to the country's digital penetration?
Budget
Approximate amount requested in USD.
- 20,000-29,999
Budget Description
Briefly describe what you expect to spend money on (specific budgets and details are not necessary at this time).
- Salary 16.800 USD: A monthly salary of USD 700 is considered for two researchers during the 12 months of the project.
Benefits 3.000 USD: This item considers travel expenses regarding the presentation of the research in international academic instances
Open access publication costs 1.500 USD: A publication in an open access journal is considered.
Impact
Address the impact and relevance to the Wikimedia projects, including the degree to which the research will address the 2030 Wikimedia Strategic Direction and/or support the work of Wikimedia user groups, affiliates, and developer communities. If your work relates to knowledge gaps, please directly relate it to the knowledge gaps taxonomy.
- This project is framed around the ability to promote the use of information as a service. Along these lines, we articulate our research based on one of the 2018-2020 recommendations: Identify topics of impact, about the role of the information provided by Wikimedia and the behavior of users in election time. This will allow Wikimedia to know information related to how the big data generated can deliver analytical tools at the academic level.
This study points to a knowledge gap identified in the Gap Taxonomy; In terms of content, an attempt will be made to cover, on the one hand, the geographic representation gap, focusing mainly on countries in Africa, Oceania and Latin America.
Dissemination
Plans for dissemination.
- We consider applying to academic bodies such as “2022 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition” and “27th IPSA World Congress” that allow us both to publicize the topic and to receive feedback from research peers. In addition to the aforementioned face-to-face instances, they will apply to participate in at least three other congresses or virtual seminars. We also consider the application to formal scientific dissemination media as free access journals.
Past Contributions
Prior contributions to related academic and/or research projects and/or the Wikimedia and free culture communities. If you do not have prior experience, please explain your planned contributions.
Federico Izaguirre cuenta con investigaciones publicadas en plataformas de libre acceso enfocadas en la accesibilidad de la información judicial y partidos políticos y participa como Wikipedista, habiendo realizado el curso “""Habilidades del Siglo XXI en acción: Ciudadanía digital y los proyectos Wikimedia"". Mientras que Catalina Solar cuenta con una investigación en proceso de publicación en un medio digital de libre acceso relacionada con la transición energética y la cohesión social. Ambos investigadores han participado en diversos proyectos académicos y en foros orientados a la difusión de conocimiento científico. https://www.linkedin.com/in/federico-izaguirre-gallardo-460462136/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/catalina-solar-b6282b181/
I agree to license the information I entered in this form excluding the pronouns, countries of residence, and email addresses under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0. I understand that the decision to fund this Research Fund application, the application itself along with all the information entered by my in this form excluding the pronouns, country of residences, and email addresses of the personnel will be published on Wikimedia Foundation Funds pages on Meta-Wiki and will be made available to the public in perpetuity. To make the results of your research actionable and reusable by the Wikimedia volunteer communities, affiliates and Foundation, I agree that any output of my research will comply with the WMF Open Access Policy. I also confirm that I have read the privacy statement and agree to abide by the WMF Friendly Space Policy and Universal Code of Conduct.
- Yes