Strategy/Wikimedia movement/2017/Cycle 3/ko

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Revised dates
Cycle 1 (generate) Sensemaking Cycle 2 (debate) Final sensemaking Cycle 3 (Engage with New Voices content;
drafting group drafts the strategic direction)
Share and finalize Endorsement Phase 2
March 14–April 18 April 18–May 5 May 11–June 12 June 12–June 30 July August and September October Late 2017–2018


전략 방향 초안 토론


5주 (확장하거나 축소하려면 클릭하세요)
 

Week 5 Challenge: How does Wikimedia meet our current and future readers’ needs as the world undergoes significant population shifts in the next 15 years?

Key insight 1

As the world population undergoes major shifts, the Wikimedia movement has an opportunity to help improve the knowledge available in more places and to more people. The continent of Africa is expected to have a 40% increase in population, along with improved internet access and literacy rates in the next 15 years. Spanish is expected to become the second most common language within 35 years. As new cultures and geographies become more dominant, the Wikimedia projects as they currently exist may be less relevant for the majority of the world’s population.

The insight above is based on the movement strategy research paper, Considering 2030: Demographic Shifts – How might Wikimedia extend its reach by 2030?

Key highlights from the report

  • Global population is shifting: By 2030, the global population projections are expected to reach 8.4 billion people (15% increase). While populations in Europe are expected to plateau, and the Americas will only have moderate growth (128 million more people), Africa is forecasted to increase by 40% – a total of 470 million more people.[5 1]
  • The population is aging: The median age is expected to rise from 29.6 to 33 years old. Africa will continue to be the youngest median age (moving from 19.6 years old to 21.4 years old).[5 1]
  • The global workforce is changing: The workforce is expected to reduce, as the percentage of the population aged 15-64 decreases. Attributed to decreased fertility, Europe and Northern America are predicted to undergo substantial decreases in their workforce population proportions, dropping approximately 5-6%.[5 2] Currently 25% of Japan’s population is over the age of 65, compared to 15% in the U.S.[5 3] To combat this issue, Japan has raised its working age above 65. By 2050, 32 other countries will have 25% of their populations over 65, so they may likely follow suit.[5 4]
  • Education levels are increasing: The world will become increasingly more educated with the proportion of literate people rising from 83% to 90% between 2015 and 2030. Africa will have the highest increase in literacy, rising from 62% (2015) to 80% (2030). Asia will increase its literacy rates by 7%, from 83% (2015) to 90% (2030). Europe and Northern America will retain their high literacy rates (99-100%).[5 5]
  • By 2050, Spanish moves from the fourth to the second most common language: Researchers expect the most common languages in the world to be Mandarin (#1), Spanish (#2), English (#3), Hindi (#4), and Arabic (#5). English is projected to move from the second to the third most common language by 2050.[5 6]

Key insight 2

According to recent research, readers in seven of our most active countries have little understanding of how Wikipedia works, is structured, is funded, and how content is created. This is especially true among 13-19 year olds. The research also found that readers mainly consider utility (usefulness), readability, and ‘free knowledge for every person,’ the most important attributes of Wikipedia. They associate Wikipedia least strongly with “neutral, unbiased content” and “transparency.” This represents an opportunity to increase brand awareness and knowledge.

This insight is based on the recent Brand awareness, attitudes, and usage research study. This survey was fielded in France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Spain, the UK, and the US via an online survey accessible on a PC, laptop, or device (tablet, smartphone).

Key excerpts from the research

Awareness
  • Across the seven countries, close to 80% of internet users are aware of Wikipedia when shown the logo. Spain has the highest awareness (89%) and Japan has the lowest (64%).
  • When asked “when you want to find information online what three websites do you go to most often,” Google (85% on average) is the top answer followed by Wikipedia (45%), YouTube (43%), Yahoo! (19%) and Facebook (17%).
  • Overall, 20% first found out about Wikipedia on the internet and 20% through school. There are generational differences, though: 35% of 13-19 year old internet users say they first heard about it in school, while 73% of 36-49 year old internet users say online.
Attitudes
  • Across all seven countries, internet users that are aware of Wikipedia associate it most strongly with “free knowledge for every person” (8.5 out of 10) and “useful” (8.3 out of 10). They associate Wikipedia least strongly with “neutral, unbiased content” (7.0) and “transparency” (6.9). There are strong generational differences, with 13-19 year olds giving Wikipedia lower association scores on most attributes.
  • When asked what is most important to those internet users that are aware of Wikipedia, the highest attributes are “useful,” “free knowledge for every person” and “easy to read.” What’s least important is “transparency” and “free of advertising.”
  • Across generations there is also broad agreement that “more trustworthy content” (57%), “higher quality content” (51%), “more neutral content” (44%), and “more visual content” (41%) would enhance their personal experience “a lot.”
사용법
  • Proportionately, Wikipedia finds its strongest audience in Spain where 91% of internet users 13-49 are aware of it and 89% read it. This compares to the average of internet users across all countries, 84.1% are aware of it and 81.1% read it.
  • By country, 75% of Wikipedia readers in Russia and 73% in Spain read Wikipedia weekly or more. Twenty-four percent of Russian and Spanish readers read daily. The lowest weekly readership is found in Japan and the UK (60% of readers each).
  • Overall, about half of Wikipedia readers access the site “often” from a desktop or laptop, or a smartphone. Readers ages 13-35 are much more likely to say they access Wikipedia often from a smartphone, and readers 13-19 years old are the most likely to say they often access Wikipedia through a service such as Siri or Alexa (21% of 13-19 year olds vs. 10% of 36-49 year olds).

For more information, please read the complete preliminary executive summary.

해결책을 제시해 주세요

  1. 메타위키에서: 토론 문서에서 토론해 보세요.

Note: Community feedback will be shared with the drafting team. It will also be used for future considerations as we face and solve these challenges.

References

  1. a b "World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision". United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Accessed 2017-06-15
  2. Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. “The Price of Maturity: Aging Populations Mean Countries Have to Find New Ways to Support Their Elderly.” Finance & Development 48.2 (2011): Pages 6–11.
  3. Schlesinger, Jacob M.; Martin, Alexander. "Graying Japan Tries to Embrace the Golden Years". Wall Street Journal. November 29, 2015. Accessed 2017-06-15.
  4. Rodionova, Zlata. "Japan’s Elderly Keep Working Well Past Retirement Age". The Independent. Retrieved 2017-06-15
  5. Country Profiles”. International Futures, Pardee Center. Accessed June 25, 2017.
  6. Graddol, David. “The Future of English: A guide to forecasting the popularity of the English language in the 21st century”. Accessed June 24, 2017
Week 4 (click to expand or collapse)
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Week 4 Challenge: How does Wikimedia continue to be as useful as possible to the world as the creation, presentation, and distribution of knowledge change?

Key insight

Trends indicate that changes are coming for all regions – both those emerging and those saturated with mobile internet.

  • For the areas just coming online, developing local, mobile content is a strong opportunity.
  • Globally, products will continue to evolve from “simple” websites with different device experiences (desktop, mobile) to even more sophisticated integrated platforms, incorporating technologies such as artificial intelligence, augmented reality, and virtual reality.

These trends will change how people create and use knowledge.

The insight above is based on the movement strategy research paper, Considering 2030: Future technology trends that will impact the Wikimedia movement.

The research on emerging platforms predicts that platform and device innovation (mobile and newer technologies) will affect how people connect, learn, and stay current. This spans from development of local content in both emerging and developed regions of the world to how the technology itself will reshape people’s interactions, making knowledge even more integrated into daily life. It may also impact who or what is developing the content, with predictions that more artificial intelligence (AI) and commercial ventures will develop more multimedia content suitable to virtual and augmented reality devices.

Trends and opportunities for the movement

Near-term - mobile access

“The internet is mobile, and mobile is the internet,” notes the Global Mobile Trends report[4 1] from GSMA Intelligence. “For an entire generation, the internet is now inextricably linked with mobile and vice versa.”[4 2] The researchers note that access to the web via mobile continues to remain low–under 40 percent–in much of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Of the world’s 7.3 billion people, only 3.4 billion use the mobile internet, GSMA Intelligence estimates. One of the barriers to mobile internet adoption is the lack of locally relevant content.[4 1] For the Wikimedia movement, the researchers suggest there is an opportunity to help engage local content contributors. The researchers also suggest Wikimedia has an opportunity to develop easier mobile solutions and potentially form new partnerships that can help extend our reach in countries coming online.

Emerging platforms and types

According to two reports[4 3] on technology innovation and usage by Mary Meeker and Amy Webb, there are four content types and platforms that are likely to mature between now and 2030:

  1. Advances in artificial intelligence and voice-driven applications will give rise to real-time, personalized education and information services that will become a part of people’s daily lives. This will move people away from text-based to more voice-activated and voice-response systems. Innovations may change the way that knowledge is gathered, assembled, and synthesized. In the future, Wikimedians may rely more on artificial intelligence and automated systems, which could change how they do their work and what they do (for some this may mean verifying and fact-checking instead of contributing new content).
  2. Virtual reality has the potential to radically change how people interact with knowledge. In these immersive life-like experiences, knowledge based on text will be difficult to integrate. However, open source immersive content may be an opportunity for current or future sister projects, and structured data might be ideal for these purposes.
  3. Augmented reality and other wearable devices add a layer of content on top of the user’s view of the world. This trend could give users immediate, relevant access to Wikimedia content and potentially revolutionize education, training, and many other industries.
  4. Older offline modes of communication may still exist and grow, as there are concerns about privacy online and a desire to not always be connected.

Potential negative consequences

In closing, the researchers share potential negative consequences:

  • When artificial intelligence generates content, it may create new content based on sources that had human bias, thereby perpetuating the bias
  • As people search and receive more content according to their own preferences, they will start to lose access to other, potentially differing content
  • Overload of information that is available every moment may lead to less ability to critically process new information
  • The digital divide – the gap between those who have online information and those who do not – will widen even further in all societies
  • New devices for virtual reality, augmented reality, and personal assistants may increase the creation of paid and proprietary content and platforms. If this happens, users may return to the role of passive consumers instead of content creators, leading to less neutral, free knowledge.
  • Archivists, educators and historians may find it more and more difficult to maintain and access these many different types of knowledge and content

References

  1. a b "Global Mobile Trends". GSMA Intelligence, October 2016. Accessed June 27, 2017.
  2. "Global Mobile Trends," slide 8
  3. NOTE: The numbered list 1-4 was drawn from two reports: Mary Meeker, "Internet Trends Report 2017". Kleiner Perkins. May 31, 2017. Accessed June 27, 2017. Amy Webb, “2017 Tech Trends Annual Report”. Future Today Institute, 2017. Accessed June 27, 2017.
Week 3 (click to expand or collapse)
 

셋째 주 과제: 위키미디어가 2030년을 내다본다면 어떻게 거짓 정보의 증가하는 수위에 대항할 수 있을 것인가?

As part of the Wikimedia 2030 strategy process, the Wikimedia Foundation is working with independent research consultants to understand the key trends that will affect the future of free knowledge, and to share this information with the movement.These two reports were prepared by Dot Connector Studio, a Philadelphia-based media research and strategy firm focused on how emerging platforms can be used for social impact, and Lutman & Associates, a St. Paul-based strategy, planning, and evaluation firm focused on the intersections of culture, media, and philanthropy.

핵심 통찰

"거짓 정보의 경향은 늘어나고 있으며, 신뢰할 수 잇는 출처를 찾는 위키미디어 사용자의 능력을 의심받게 할 수 있습니다."

In their paper Considering 2030: Misinformation, verification, and propaganda,[3 1] the researchers have categorized the trends about misinformation into two categories: sources of content, and how content is accessed. For each, they looked at three global sources of influence: technology, government and politics, and commerce.

개별적으로 연구자들은 다음의 경향과 식을 식별하고 그것에 우리의 미래에 어떠한 영향을 미칠지를 예측하였습니다.

  • 인공 지능이 지식 생산과 분석의 속도를 높이기 때문에 기술은 외부의 자료가 콘텐츠를 만드는 방식을 변화시킬 것입니다. 이러한 경향은 출처를 찾는 것을 더 쉽게 만들어 주고 높은 품질의 편집을 가능하게 해 줄 수 잇는 반면, 편향된 자료나 허위의 콘텐츠를 생산할 수도 있습니다. 이러한 가능성은 인공 지능이 데이터를 모아 더 많은 콘텐츠를 생산할 때 거짓 정보를 "사실"로 이용하면 더욱 큰 문제가 될 수 있습니다.[3 2] This may challenge Wikimedians’ ability to verify sources and maintain high-quality content.
  • 기술은 (모바일 디바이스, 웨어러블 디바이스, 목소리 기반 버추얼 비서와 같이) 더욱 개인화된 인터페이스로 이동하고 있으며, 위키백과의 콘텐츠에 접속하는 방식은 현재의 플랫폼과 함께 크게 달라질 것입니다.
  • 세계적으로 표현의 자유는 맹렬히 공격받고 있습니다.[3 3] [3 4] [3 5] [3 6] [3 7] [3 8] 일부 기업과 정부, 정치인은 그들의 이익을 위하여 잘못되거나 허위의 정보를 확신시키고 있습니다. 이러한 정보는 기술이 (오디오, 비디오, 이미지 등) 다른 미디어를 조작하기 쉽게 만들어 줌으로써 텍스트를 초월하였습니다. 이는 전체적인 지식 네트워크를 약화시키며, 위키미디어 프로젝트가 중립적인 시각을 유지하고 편향적이지 않은 문서를 이용하거는 것을 어렵게 만들 수 있습니다.
  • 위키미디어 콘텐츠를 검열하는 경향은 감소하였으나, (중국이나 터키 같이) 일부 정부는 광범위하게 콘텐츠를 검열하고 있습니다. “HTTPS” 기술의 발전은 개별적인 페이지를 차단하는 것을 어렵게 만들었습니다. 이는 단기간에 효과가 있었으나 새로운 반검열 도구와 방식이 지속적으로 개발될 필요가 있을 것입니다.
  • 트위터나 페이스북과 같은 소셜 미디어 기업이 성장하고 개인적 네트워크를 통하여 거짓 정보를 확산하는 경로가 된 반면, 동시에 설립된 기관에 대한 신뢰는 감소하였습니다. 거짓 정보를 확인하여 중립적이고 정확한 정보를 배포하기 위해서는 혁신이 필요할 것입니다.
  • 상업적 기업은 폐쇄적인 앱과 상품, 플랫폼을 개발하기 때문에, 신뢰할 수 있는 소스를 찾기가 더욱 힘들어지고 위키미디어 컨텐츠에 대한 접속 가능성이 떨어질 수 있습니다. (이 주제는 향후의 연구에서 더 다뤄질 것입니다.)

거짓 정보에 대한 연구는 이러한 문제에 대한 잠재적인 해결책을 제시합니다. 여러분이 그 연구를 검토할 때, 운동으로서의 우리가 어떻게 신뢰할 수 있고, 자유로우며, 중립적인 지식을 위한 세계의 여정을 도울 수 있는지에 대해서 논의해 주십시오.

References

  1. Considering 2030: Misinformation, verification, and propaganda
  2. Bilton, Nick. "Fake news is about to get even scarier than you ever dreamed". Vanity Fair. January 26, 2017. Accessed May 30, 2017.
  3. Reporters Without Borders. "2017 World Press Freedom Index – tipping point?" April 26, 2017. Updated May 15, 2017. Accessed May 28, 2017.
  4. Nordland, Rod. "Turkey's Free Press Withers as Erdogan Jails 120 Journalists." The New York Times. November 17, 2016. Accessed June 7, 2017.
  5. Reporters Without Borders. "Journalism weakened by democracy's erosion". Accessed May 29, 2017.
  6. Paul, Christopher and Miriam Matthews. The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2016.
  7. Broderick, Ryan. "Trump Supporters Online Are Pretending To Be French To Manipulate France's Election". BuzzFeed News. January 24, 2017. Accessed June 7, 2017.
  8. Tufekci, Zeynep. "Dear France: You Just Got Hacked. Don't Make The Same Mistakes We Did". BuzzFeed. May 5, 2017. Accessed June 7, 2017.
Week 2 (click to expand or collapse)
 

두 번째 주 과제: 전통적인 방식으로 많은 것이 확인되지 않는다면, 어떻게 지식의 총체를 포착할 수 있는가

Key insights

세상의 많은 지식이 위키미디어 프로젝트에 문화로 기록되지 않았으며, 자료를 통합하고 확인하기 위하여 새로운 방법이 필요합니다.

우리의 "신뢰할 수 있는 출처"에 대한 현재의 정의는 수 세기 동안 지식과 역사가 기술된 형태로 문서화된 서구의 문화에 뿌리를 두는 관행에 기반합니다. 이러한 편향은 지식의 총체를 모으는 비전과 충돌합니다.

예를 들어 다수의 아프리카 문화에 대해서는 지식이 전통적으로 구전으로만 공유되거나 그나마 작성된 문서도 식민주의적 편견의 시각으로 작성되었기 때문에 신뢰할 수 있는 2차 출처를 찾기 어렵습니다. 몇몇 단체는 다른 방식으로 구전 지식을 문서화하는데에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

위키미디어 사용자로서 우리는 동료 평가나 주류 미디어와 같은 전통적인 경로의 범위에서 생산된 신뢰할 수 있는 자료를 식별하는 데 전문적이 되었습니다. 전략적 과제는 지난 주부터 독자는 명성있는 단체를 신뢰하는 것으로부터 멀어지고 있으며, 대신 그들이 신뢰하는 개인으로부터 자료를 이용하고 있습니다. 이러한 경향은 위키미디어 사용자가 문화적으로 덜 제한적인 출처 표시 방식을 상상하고 독자의 변화한 기대를 더욱 충족할 수 있는 기회가 될 수 있습니다.

신뢰받는 정보를 발견하고 공유하는 것은 역사적으로 발전하고 있습니다


각주

첫 번째 주 (click to expand or collapse)
 

첫째 주 과제: 어떻게 커뮤니티와 콘텐츠는 변화하는 세계에서 적절함을 유지할 것인가?

핵심 통찰

서구식 백과사전 모델은 학습하길 원하는 모든 사람의 자라나는 욕구를 충족하지 못하고 있다.

저희가 실시한 민족 연구와 전문가 인터뷰에 따르면, 기존과 미래의 독자는 현재 위키백과의 백과사전적 형식과 서구 중심적인 규범을 초월하는 학습을 위한 플랫폼을 원하고 있습니다..[1] 전문가들은 공교육 시스템은 많은 곳, 특히, 개발 도상국에서 에서 잘 작동하지 않는다고 말합니다. 사람들은 자료나 인프라 문제를 상쇄하기 우한 새로운 학습 방법을 찾고 있습니다.[2] 위키백과와 그 자매 프로젝트는 풍부한 지식을 탐색하기 위한 웹의 목적지로 만들어졌지만 많은 독자들이 특정한 문제에 대한 해답을 얻는 데에 더 흥미를 느낍니다.[3] 온라인에서 지식을 찾는 많은 사람들이 새로운 기술을 얻거나 콘텐츠를 구성하는 짧고, 독립된, 그리고/또는 시각적인 방법을 찾습니다. 위키백과의 길고, 텍스트 위주의 백과사전 문서의 모형은 이러한 변화하는 욕구를 충족시키지 못합니다. 또한 교육적인 지식의 다른 형식을 위한 공간을 제공하지 않고 있습니다.

지식 공유는 전세계적으로 매우 사회적이 되고 있습니다.

민족 연구와 인식, 사용 연구로부터의 결과는 스마트폰을 사용하는 젋은 사람들이 새로운 방법으로 정보를 공유하고 찾는다는 것을 보여줍니다. 이들은 연구할 만한 새로운 그룹입니다.[4] 이들은 소셜 미디어와 메시저에 깊게 속해 있으며, 그들이 이미 사용하는 플랫폼을 통하여 정보를 공유하거나 토론하는 것을 선호합니다.[5] 전문가들은 새로운 경향이 나타나고 있다고 주장합니다. 예를 들어 많은 젋은 사람들이 직접 토론하는 것과 동등하게 메신저를 통하여 친구나 인적 네트워크에 정보를 요청합니다.[5] 불신과 회의가 만연하여, "신뢰할 만한 출처"는 종종 무시되며, 잛은 사람들은 "존중할 만한" 전통적인 기관보다는 그들의 인적 네트워크 안의 사람들을 신뢰합니다.[3] 이러한 변화는 많은 독자와의 연관성을 위협할 수 있습니다.

이야기로 보는 핵심 통찰

Because different minds work in different ways, some people may prefer to think of these challenges in terms of these personal stories (note these are fictional characters based on the research findings).

Meet Michael and Annisa, two teenagers from across continents and lifestyles (click to expand or collapse)
Michael is a teenage boy living in Washington, DC, United States. He and all his friends have smartphones, and they use them to connect, share interesting content, and lookup information for school. While Michael and all his friends are aware of Wikipedia, they are significantly less likely than their parents to read Wikipedia (46% vs. 72% read it weekly or more often).[6] When they do, it’s to look up a specific topic (41% of the time) or help them study (23% of the time). YouTube is in his top 3 websites. He doesn’t remember a time without social media, and he and his friends are always online via their smartphones.[7] “Facebook is for old people” and SnapChat is Michael’s preferred way to interact and share content with friends. He gets information from a variety of devices, from the desktop computer to listening to Siri on his phone or the Amazon Echo in his family’s living room. Like his parents, Michael values that the content is useful, more than if it is high quality or free and neutral.[6]

Annisa is a 15 year old girl in the city of Bandung, Indonesia. Her family is considered wealthy, and she is lucky enough to have a smartphone (one of the 21% of the country’s whole population[8]). Her family doesn’t have a desktop computer, so she uses her phone to search for the information she needs for school. Mostly, though, she uses WhatsApp to connect with her friends and share information in her local language. Her family and friends are very interconnected and social, so her phone is an extension of that. She trusts the information she receives from friends and people she follows. Sometimes she uses search results in English that display content from Wikipedia, but she is unaware that this is from Wikipedia. She and her friends share snippets of information that fit on their mobile phones and give them the exact information they need. Browsing the internet for the sake of discovering new things is just not part of what she does.

References